J Clim 26(4):1387–1402īengtssonn L, Roeckner E (2006) Storm tracks and climate change. J Atmos Sci 55(4):477–493īayr T, Dommenget D (2013) The tropospheric land–sea warming contrast as the driver of tropical sea level pressure changes. J Clim 22(10):2557–2570īarsugli J, Battisti D (1998) The basic effects of atmosphere–ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062593Īndrews T, Forster PM, Gregory JM (2009) A surface energy perspective on climate change. doi: 10.5194/gmd-2016-6Īnderson B, Lintner B, Langenbrunner B, Neelin J, Hawkins E, Syktus J (2015) Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.Īckerley D, Dommenget D (2016) Atmosphere-only GCM simulations with prescribed land surface temperatures. ![]() However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. ![]() A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to \(CO_2\) forcing.
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